Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Casper Ruud
To win
+$30.80
Total payout
$50.80
Joint prob
60.0%
Combined odds
2.54
Fair odds
1.67
Edge
+52.4%
Expected value: +$10.48 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.48 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.0% · fair market: 38.0% · edge: +57.7%
Model probabilities Casper Ruud 60.0% · Rafael Jodar 40.0% Why Casper Ruud is favoured Casper Ruud's Elo (1632) is +44 over Rafael Jodar (1587); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 62.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 60.0% vs market 38.0% (edge +57.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.