Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lorenzo Sonego
To win
+$203.40
Total payout
$223.40
Joint prob
27.9%
Combined odds
11.17
Fair odds
3.58
Edge
+211.9%
Expected value: +$42.39 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$42.39 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.9% · fair market: 8.7% · edge: +222.2%
Model probabilities Alexander Zverev 72.1% · Lorenzo Sonego 27.9% Why Alexander Zverev is favoured Alexander Zverev's Elo (1883) is +322 over Lorenzo Sonego (1561); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 91.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 72.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 27.9% vs market 8.7% (edge +222.2%, suggested Kelly +20.8% of bankroll).