Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Denis Shapovalov
To win
+$42.00
Total payout
$62.00
Joint prob
62.6%
Combined odds
3.10
Fair odds
1.60
Edge
+94.2%
Expected value: +$18.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$18.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.6% · fair market: 31.3% · edge: +100.4%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 37.4% · Denis Shapovalov 62.6% Why Denis Shapovalov is favoured Elo essentially level (1597 vs 1602) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (30%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 48.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 37.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 62.6% vs market 31.3% (edge +100.4%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (30% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.