Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nuno Borges
To win
+$13.00
Total payout
$33.00
Joint prob
68.7%
Combined odds
1.65
Fair odds
1.46
Edge
+13.4%
Expected value: +$2.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.7% · fair market: 58.0% · edge: +18.4%
Model probabilities Nuno Borges 68.7% · Alex Molcan 31.3% Why Nuno Borges is favoured Nuno Borges's Elo (1643) is +96 over Alex Molcan (1548); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 68.7% vs market 58.0% (edge +18.4%, suggested Kelly +20.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.