Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kimberly Birrell
To win
+$66.00
Total payout
$86.00
Joint prob
32.3%
Combined odds
4.30
Fair odds
3.10
Edge
+38.9%
Expected value: +$7.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.3% · fair market: 22.7% · edge: +42.6%
Model probabilities Kimberly Birrell 32.3% · Ekaterina Alexandrova 67.7% Why Ekaterina Alexandrova is favoured Ekaterina Alexandrova's Elo (1651) is +95 over Kimberly Birrell (1556); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 32.3% vs market 22.7% (edge +42.6%, suggested Kelly +11.8% of bankroll).