Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diane Parry
To win
+$25.60
Total payout
$45.60
Joint prob
81.4%
Combined odds
2.28
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+85.5%
Expected value: +$17.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.4% · fair market: 43.6% · edge: +86.7%
Model probabilities Diane Parry 81.4% · Kayla Day 18.6% Why Diane Parry is favoured Diane Parry's Elo (1566) is +167 over Kayla Day (1399); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 81.4% vs market 43.6% (edge +86.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.