Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sebastian Baez
To win
+$51.80
Total payout
$71.80
Joint prob
39.4%
Combined odds
3.59
Fair odds
2.54
Edge
+41.5%
Expected value: +$8.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 39.4% · fair market: 27.0% · edge: +45.8%
Model probabilities Learner Tien 60.6% · Sebastian Baez 39.4% Why Learner Tien is favoured Learner Tien's Elo (1757) is +257 over Sebastian Baez (1501); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 87.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 39.4% vs market 27.0% (edge +45.8%, suggested Kelly +16.0% of bankroll).