Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$30.40
Total payout
$50.40
Joint prob
40.2%
Combined odds
2.52
Fair odds
2.49
Edge
+1.3%
Expected value: +$0.27 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 40.2% · fair market: 36.5% · edge: +10.1%
Model probabilities Ekaterina Alexandrova 40.2% · Diana Shnaider 59.8% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1704) is +31 over Ekaterina Alexandrova (1673); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 40.2% vs market 36.5% (edge +10.1%, suggested Kelly +0.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.