Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Magdalena Frech
To win
+$26.00
Total payout
$46.00
Joint prob
45.6%
Combined odds
2.30
Fair odds
2.19
Edge
+5.0%
Expected value: +$1.00 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.00 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.6% · fair market: 42.1% · edge: +8.5%
Model probabilities Nikola Bartunkova 54.4% · Magdalena Frech 45.6% Why Nikola Bartunkova is favoured Nikola Bartunkova's Elo (1585) is +30 over Magdalena Frech (1554); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 58.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.6% vs market 42.1% (edge +8.5%, suggested Kelly +3.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.