Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Michael Zheng
To win
+$21.20
Total payout
$41.20
Joint prob
58.6%
Combined odds
2.06
Fair odds
1.71
Edge
+20.7%
Expected value: +$4.14 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.14 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 58.6% · fair market: 46.9% · edge: +24.9%
Model probabilities Wu Yibing 41.4% · Michael Zheng 58.6% Why Michael Zheng is favoured Michael Zheng's Elo (1549) is +36 over Wu Yibing (1513); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 39.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 41.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 58.6% vs market 46.9% (edge +24.9%, suggested Kelly +19.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.