Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Leylah Fernandez
To win
+$95.40
Total payout
$115.40
Joint prob
30.7%
Combined odds
5.77
Fair odds
3.26
Edge
+77.1%
Expected value: +$15.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$15.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.7% · fair market: 16.9% · edge: +82.1%
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 69.3% · Leylah Fernandez 30.7% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1914) is +274 over Leylah Fernandez (1640); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.7% vs market 16.9% (edge +82.1%, suggested Kelly +16.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.