Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mary Stoiana
To win
+$70.80
Total payout
$90.80
Joint prob
25.6%
Combined odds
4.54
Fair odds
3.91
Edge
+16.0%
Expected value: +$3.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 25.6% · fair market: 21.5% · edge: +19.1%
Model probabilities Mary Stoiana 25.6% · Alexandra Eala 74.4% Why Alexandra Eala is favoured Alexandra Eala's Elo (1679) is +196 over Mary Stoiana (1484); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 16.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 25.6% vs market 21.5% (edge +19.1%, suggested Kelly +4.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.