Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaime Faria
To win
+$164.40
Total payout
$184.40
Joint prob
13.4%
Combined odds
9.22
Fair odds
7.48
Edge
+23.3%
Expected value: +$4.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 13.4% · fair market: 10.5% · edge: +27.6%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 13.4% · Carlos Alcaraz 86.6% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2030) is +480 over Jaime Faria (1549); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 3.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 13.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 13.4% vs market 10.5% (edge +27.6%, suggested Kelly +2.8% of bankroll).