Model probabilities Mattia Bellucci 27.3% · Arthur Rinderknech 72.7% Why Arthur Rinderknech is favoured Arthur Rinderknech's Elo (1596) is +126 over Mattia Bellucci (1469); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.