Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Robin Montgomery
To win
+$24.80
Total payout
$44.80
Joint prob
61.7%
Combined odds
2.24
Fair odds
1.62
Edge
+38.3%
Expected value: +$7.66 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 61.7% · fair market: 43.4% · edge: +42.1%
Model probabilities Katie Volynets 38.3% · Robin Montgomery 61.7% Why Robin Montgomery is favoured Robin Montgomery's Elo (1483) is +40 over Katie Volynets (1442); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 61.7% vs market 43.4% (edge +42.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).