Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Raphael Collignon
To win
+$13.60
Total payout
$33.60
Joint prob
72.7%
Combined odds
1.68
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+22.2%
Expected value: +$4.44 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.44 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.7% · fair market: 57.9% · edge: +25.6%
Model probabilities Mariano Navone 27.3% · Raphael Collignon 72.7% Why Raphael Collignon is favoured Raphael Collignon's Elo (1555) is +105 over Mariano Navone (1449); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.7% vs market 57.9% (edge +25.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.