Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dane Sweeny
To win
+$25.80
Total payout
$45.80
Joint prob
62.7%
Combined odds
2.29
Fair odds
1.60
Edge
+43.5%
Expected value: +$8.69 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.7% · fair market: 41.9% · edge: +49.6%
Model probabilities Shintaro Mochizuki 37.3% · Dane Sweeny 62.7% Why Dane Sweeny is favoured Dane Sweeny's Elo (1473) is +44 over Shintaro Mochizuki (1428); medium confidence. +EV vs market away: model 62.7% vs market 41.9% (edge +49.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.