Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kimberly Birrell
To win
+$17.40
Total payout
$37.40
Joint prob
71.3%
Combined odds
1.87
Fair odds
1.40
Edge
+33.3%
Expected value: +$6.66 on a $20 stake.
Kamilla Rakhimova enters the WTA Cincinnati Open with recent positive momentum, having reached the third round of the Canadian Open with two wins, including a walkover due to an opponent's fitness issues and a victory over Venus Williams. In contrast, Kimberly Birrell is on a three-match losing streak, having not secured a win since June.
Kimberly Birrell is currently on a three-match losing streak and has not recorded a win since June.
Kamilla Rakhimova recently reached the third round of the Canadian Open, securing two wins, including a walkover due to Katerina Siniakova's fitness issues (August 5, 2026) and a victory over Venus Williams (August 2, 2026).
Kamilla Rakhimova is expected to start with a degree of confidence following her recent performance at the Canadian Open, where she secured two wins and reached the third round.
Kimberly Birrell is expected to start, but her recent form indicates a lack of momentum, as she has not won a match since June and is on a three-match losing streak.
Expected value: +$6.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.3% · fair market: 51.8% · edge: +37.6%
Model probabilities Kamilla Rakhimova 28.7% · Kimberly Birrell 71.3% Why Kimberly Birrell is favoured Kimberly Birrell's Elo (1556) is +86 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1470); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 71.3% vs market 51.8% (edge +37.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.