Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Coco Gauff
To win
+$5.60
Total payout
$25.60
Joint prob
90.2%
Combined odds
1.28
Fair odds
1.11
Edge
+15.5%
Expected value: +$3.10 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.10 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 90.2% · fair market: 76.0% · edge: +18.7%
Model probabilities Alina Korneeva 9.8% · Coco Gauff 90.2% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1878) is +302 over Alina Korneeva (1576); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 90.2% vs market 76.0% (edge +18.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.