Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elena Rybakina
To win
+$2.60
Total payout
$22.60
Joint prob
93.7%
Combined odds
1.13
Fair odds
1.07
Edge
+5.8%
Expected value: +$1.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 93.7% · fair market: 86.0% · edge: +8.8%
Model probabilities Daria Kasatkina 6.3% · Elena Rybakina 93.7% Why Elena Rybakina is favoured Elena Rybakina's Elo (1959) is +386 over Daria Kasatkina (1572); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 93.7% vs market 86.0% (edge +8.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.