Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Timofeeva
To win
+$40.00
Total payout
$60.00
Joint prob
38.6%
Combined odds
3.00
Fair odds
2.59
Edge
+15.7%
Expected value: +$3.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.6% · fair market: 32.4% · edge: +18.9%
Model probabilities Maria Timofeeva 38.6% · Xiyu Wang 61.4% Why Xiyu Wang is favoured Elo essentially level (1477 vs 1474) — winner depends on context. Calibration Raw model: 51.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 38.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 38.6% vs market 32.4% (edge +18.9%, suggested Kelly +7.8% of bankroll).