Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Andrey Rublev
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
78.1%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+2.3%
Expected value: +$0.45 on a $20 stake.
Juncheng Shang is returning from a prolonged injury layoff and has publicly stated he is not yet at his top form, despite securing a recent win at the Canadian Open. Andrey Rublev has no recent integrity, morale, or injury concerns reported within the last 14 days.
Juncheng Shang is confirmed to be playing in the Canadian Open, having won his first-round match. However, he is returning from a significant injury layoff (nagging foot injury) and has stated he is not yet at his top form, experiencing issues with his strokes in training. He is playing under a protected ranking.
Andrey Rublev is the tenth seed in the Canadian Open and is expected to play. He recently won the Nordea Open on clay and reached the quarter-finals in Estoril, indicating reasonable form.
Expected value: +$0.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.1% · fair market: 73.8% · edge: +5.8%
Model probabilities Juncheng Shang 21.9% · Andrey Rublev 78.1% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1672) is +134 over Juncheng Shang (1538); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 78.1% vs market 73.8% (edge +5.8%, suggested Kelly +7.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.