Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alina Charaeva
To win
+$223.00
Total payout
$243.00
Joint prob
8.3%
Combined odds
12.15
Fair odds
12.11
Edge
+0.3%
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 8.3% · fair market: 8.0% · edge: +3.8%
Model probabilities Elena Rybakina 91.7% · Alina Charaeva 8.3% Calibration Raw model: 96.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 91.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 8.3% vs market 8.0% (edge +3.8%, suggested Kelly +0.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.