Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Carlos Alcaraz
To win
+$4.40
Total payout
$24.40
Joint prob
83.0%
Combined odds
1.22
Fair odds
1.21
Edge
+1.2%
Expected value: +$0.24 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.24 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 83.0% · fair market: 79.7% · edge: +4.1%
Model probabilities Alex de Minaur 17.0% · Carlos Alcaraz 83.0% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2042) is +257 over Alex de Minaur (1785); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 12.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 17.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 83.0% vs market 79.7% (edge +4.1%, suggested Kelly +5.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.