Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Frances Tiafoe
To win
+$7.60
Total payout
$27.60
Joint prob
73.5%
Combined odds
1.38
Fair odds
1.36
Edge
+1.4%
Expected value: +$0.28 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.28 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.5% · fair market: 70.3% · edge: +4.6%
Model probabilities Yannick Hanfmann 26.5% · Frances Tiafoe 73.5% Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1740) is +134 over Yannick Hanfmann (1606); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 21.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.5% vs market 70.3% (edge +4.6%, suggested Kelly +3.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.