Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Learner Tien
To win
+$31.60
Total payout
$51.60
Joint prob
49.9%
Combined odds
2.58
Fair odds
2.00
Edge
+28.7%
Expected value: +$5.74 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 49.9% · fair market: 37.7% · edge: +32.4%
Learner Tien recently defeated Gael Monfils in a three-set match at the Canadian Open, showcasing strong performance to advance to the third round. He is currently the 12th seed in the tournament and holds an ATP ranking of 16.
Lineup: Expected to start in the Round of 32 match against Tommy Paul at the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal.
Tommy Paul has also secured a win in his opening match at the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal, demonstrating solid form. He is seeded 17th in the tournament and holds an ATP ranking of 14.
Lineup: Expected to start in the Round of 32 match against Learner Tien at the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal.
“Learner Tien and Tommy Paul advance at the ATP Canadian Open, setting up an all-American clash in the Round of 32.”
Model probabilities Learner Tien 49.9% · Tommy Paul 50.1% Why Tommy Paul is favoured Elo essentially level (1741 vs 1742) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market home: model 49.9% vs market 37.7% (edge +32.4%, suggested Kelly +18.2% of bankroll). News context Learner Tien and Tommy Paul advance at the ATP Canadian Open, setting up an all-American clash in the Round of 32. Learner Tien: Learner Tien recently defeated Gael Monfils in a three-set match at the Canadian Open, showcasing strong performance to advance to the third round. He is currently the 12th seed in the tournament and holds an ATP ranking of 16. Tommy Paul: Tommy Paul has also secured a win in his opening match at the ATP Canadian Open in Montreal, demonstrating solid form. He is seeded 17th in the tournament and holds an ATP ranking of 14.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.