Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Berrettini
To win
+$11.00
Total payout
$31.00
Joint prob
65.9%
Combined odds
1.55
Fair odds
1.52
Edge
+2.1%
Expected value: +$0.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.9% · fair market: 62.9% · edge: +4.7%
Model probabilities Matteo Berrettini 65.9% · Mariano Navone 34.1% Why Matteo Berrettini is favoured Matteo Berrettini's Elo (1652) is +217 over Mariano Navone (1435); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 85.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 65.9% vs market 62.9% (edge +4.7%, suggested Kelly +3.8% of bankroll).