Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 23.7% · fair market: 25.2% · edge: -6.2%
Model probabilities Kamilla Rakhimova 23.7% · Leylah Fernandez 76.3% Why Leylah Fernandez is favoured Leylah Fernandez's Elo (1640) is +148 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1492); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 20.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.