Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Holger Rune
To win
+$11.20
Total payout
$31.20
Joint prob
79.0%
Combined odds
1.56
Fair odds
1.27
Edge
+23.2%
Expected value: +$4.64 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.64 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 79.0% · fair market: 62.2% · edge: +26.9%
Model probabilities Holger Rune 79.0% · Kyrian Jacquet 21.0% Why Holger Rune is favoured Holger Rune's Elo (1720) is +230 over Kyrian Jacquet (1490); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 79.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 79.0% vs market 62.2% (edge +26.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).