Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diane Parry
To win
+$56.60
Total payout
$76.60
Joint prob
48.5%
Combined odds
3.83
Fair odds
2.06
Edge
+85.8%
Expected value: +$17.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.5% · fair market: 25.3% · edge: +91.5%
Model probabilities Elise Mertens 51.5% · Diane Parry 48.5% Why Elise Mertens is favoured Elise Mertens's Elo (1663) is +120 over Diane Parry (1543); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 76.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 51.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 48.5% vs market 25.3% (edge +91.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.