Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Katie Boulter
To win
+$20.20
Total payout
$40.20
Joint prob
54.2%
Combined odds
2.01
Fair odds
1.84
Edge
+9.0%
Expected value: +$1.80 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.80 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.2% · fair market: 48.1% · edge: +12.8%
Katie Boulter is currently experiencing a challenging period, having extended a five-match losing streak, her first as a professional. This comes after a strong start to the year that included a WTA title in Ostrava and a win over Elena Rybakina at Queen's Club.
Lineup: Katie Boulter is expected to start her campaign in the first round of the Cincinnati Open against Katie Volynets.
Katie Volynets is entering the Cincinnati Open as a wildcard, coming off a recent loss at the Memphis Open. Despite this, she has shown solid recent form, winning 7 of her last 10 matches.
Lineup: Katie Volynets, a wildcard entry, is scheduled to play Katie Boulter in the first round of the Cincinnati Open.
“Katie Boulter faces Katie Volynets at Cincinnati Open amidst a five-match losing streak, while Volynets enters with solid recent form.”
Model probabilities Katie Boulter 54.2% · Katie Volynets 45.8% Why Katie Boulter is favoured Katie Boulter's Elo (1603) is +161 over Katie Volynets (1442); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 54.2% vs market 48.1% (edge +12.8%, suggested Kelly +8.9% of bankroll). News context Katie Boulter faces Katie Volynets at Cincinnati Open amidst a five-match losing streak, while Volynets enters with solid recent form. Katie Boulter: Katie Boulter is currently experiencing a challenging period, having extended a five-match losing streak, her first as a professional. This comes after a strong start to the year that included a WTA title in Ostrava and a win over Elena Rybakina at Queen's Club. Katie Volynets: Katie Volynets is entering the Cincinnati Open as a wildcard, coming off a recent loss at the Memphis Open. Despite this, she has shown solid recent form, winning 7 of her last 10 matches.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.