Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dalibor Svrcina
To win
+$24.40
Total payout
$44.40
Joint prob
51.8%
Combined odds
2.22
Fair odds
1.93
Edge
+15.0%
Expected value: +$3.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 51.8% · fair market: 43.9% · edge: +17.9%
Model probabilities Luciano Darderi 48.2% · Dalibor Svrcina 51.8% Why Dalibor Svrcina is favoured Luciano Darderi's Elo (1531) is +27 over Dalibor Svrcina (1504); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 58.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 48.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 51.8% vs market 43.9% (edge +17.9%, suggested Kelly +12.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.