Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Brandon Nakashima
To win
+$9.00
Total payout
$29.00
Joint prob
72.8%
Combined odds
1.45
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+5.5%
Expected value: +$1.11 on a $20 stake.
The ATP Canadian Open quarterfinal match between Luciano Darderi and Brandon Nakashima, originally scheduled for Monday, August 10, 2026, was postponed due to rain and rescheduled for Tuesday, August 11, 2026. This creates a condensed schedule for both players. Brandon Nakashima recently recovered from a back injury and appears fit, having played and won his third-round match on August 6, 2026.
Expected value: +$1.11 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.8% · fair market: 67.3% · edge: +8.1%
Model probabilities Luciano Darderi 27.2% · Brandon Nakashima 72.8% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1655) is +106 over Luciano Darderi (1549); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 25.4% home · Platt-calibrated up to 27.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 72.8% vs market 67.3% (edge +8.1%, suggested Kelly +12.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.