Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jenson Brooksby
To win
+$15.00
Total payout
$35.00
Joint prob
70.2%
Combined odds
1.75
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+22.9%
Expected value: +$4.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.2% · fair market: 55.2% · edge: +27.1%
Model probabilities Jaime Faria 29.8% · Jenson Brooksby 70.2% Why Jenson Brooksby is favoured Jenson Brooksby's Elo (1562) is +73 over Jaime Faria (1489); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 30.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 29.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.2% vs market 55.2% (edge +27.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).