Model probabilities Iga Swiatek 68.8% · Marie Bouzkova 31.2% Why Iga Swiatek is favoured Iga Swiatek's Elo (1914) is +266 over Marie Bouzkova (1648); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 88.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 68.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.