Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
To win
+$22.20
Total payout
$42.20
Joint prob
69.1%
Combined odds
2.11
Fair odds
1.45
Edge
+45.8%
Expected value: +$9.16 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$9.16 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.1% · fair market: 45.5% · edge: +52.0%
Model probabilities Hugo Gaston 30.9% · Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 69.1% Why Nicolai Budkov Kjaer is favoured Nicolai Budkov Kjaer's Elo (1479) is +61 over Hugo Gaston (1418); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 33.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 30.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 69.1% vs market 45.5% (edge +52.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.