Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Talia Gibson
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
68.9%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.45
Edge
+15.1%
Expected value: +$3.01 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.01 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 68.9% · fair market: 57.9% · edge: +18.9%
Model probabilities Maja Chwalinska 31.1% · Talia Gibson 68.9% Why Talia Gibson is favoured Talia Gibson's Elo (1591) is +72 over Maja Chwalinska (1519); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 68.9% vs market 57.9% (edge +18.9%, suggested Kelly +22.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.