Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sofia Kenin
To win
+$182.80
Total payout
$202.80
Joint prob
22.1%
Combined odds
10.14
Fair odds
4.53
Edge
+123.9%
Expected value: +$24.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$24.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 22.1% · fair market: 9.5% · edge: +131.3%
Model probabilities Jessica Pegula 77.9% · Sofia Kenin 22.1% Why Jessica Pegula is favoured Jessica Pegula's Elo (1911) is +433 over Sofia Kenin (1478); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 95.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 77.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 22.1% vs market 9.5% (edge +131.3%, suggested Kelly +13.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.