Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Caroline Dolehide
To win
+$18.60
Total payout
$38.60
Joint prob
55.0%
Combined odds
1.93
Fair odds
1.82
Edge
+6.2%
Expected value: +$1.25 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.25 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.0% · fair market: 50.1% · edge: +9.8%
Model probabilities Diane Parry 45.0% · Caroline Dolehide 55.0% Why Caroline Dolehide is favoured Diane Parry's Elo (1543) is +53 over Caroline Dolehide (1489); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 64.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 55.0% vs market 50.1% (edge +9.8%, suggested Kelly +6.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.