Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mariano Navone
To win
+$29.20
Total payout
$49.20
Joint prob
50.3%
Combined odds
2.46
Fair odds
1.99
Edge
+23.8%
Expected value: +$4.75 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.75 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 50.3% · fair market: 39.6% · edge: +27.2%
Model probabilities Luca Van Assche 49.7% · Mariano Navone 50.3% Why Mariano Navone is favoured Elo essentially level (1441 vs 1442) — winner depends on context. +EV vs market away: model 50.3% vs market 39.6% (edge +27.2%, suggested Kelly +16.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.