Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jenson Brooksby
To win
+$15.60
Total payout
$35.60
Joint prob
72.3%
Combined odds
1.78
Fair odds
1.38
Edge
+28.7%
Expected value: +$5.74 on a $20 stake.
No material integrity, morale, or squad-news flags found in the last 14 days.
Expected value: +$5.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.3% · fair market: 54.7% · edge: +32.2%
Model probabilities Adam Walton 27.7% · Jenson Brooksby 72.3% Why Jenson Brooksby is favoured Jenson Brooksby's Elo (1562) is +91 over Adam Walton (1471); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 72.3% vs market 54.7% (edge +32.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.