Model probabilities Quentin Halys 20.7% · Alex de Minaur 79.3% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Alex de Minaur's Elo (1755) is +234 over Quentin Halys (1522); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 13.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.