Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Denis Shapovalov
To win
+$62.20
Total payout
$82.20
Joint prob
37.0%
Combined odds
4.11
Fair odds
2.70
Edge
+52.1%
Expected value: +$10.41 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.41 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 37.0% · fair market: 23.7% · edge: +55.8%
Model probabilities Ben Shelton 63.0% · Denis Shapovalov 37.0% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1770) is +174 over Denis Shapovalov (1596); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 63.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 37.0% vs market 23.7% (edge +55.8%, suggested Kelly +16.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.