Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sara Bejlek
To win
+$28.60
Total payout
$48.60
Joint prob
45.9%
Combined odds
2.43
Fair odds
2.18
Edge
+11.5%
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.9% · fair market: 39.9% · edge: +15.2%
Model probabilities Barbora Krejcikova 54.1% · Sara Bejlek 45.9% Why Barbora Krejcikova is favoured Barbora Krejcikova's Elo (1719) is +155 over Sara Bejlek (1564); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 45.9% vs market 39.9% (edge +15.2%, suggested Kelly +8.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.