Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.0% · fair market: 35.7% · edge: -4.9%
Model probabilities Francisco Cerundolo 34.0% · Jakub Mensik 66.0% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1760) is +64 over Francisco Cerundolo (1696); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 32.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 34.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. Market check No +EV edge — book has the price right at these odds.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.