Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mark Lajal
To win
+$22.80
Total payout
$42.80
Joint prob
65.2%
Combined odds
2.14
Fair odds
1.53
Edge
+39.4%
Expected value: +$7.89 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.89 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 65.2% · fair market: 44.8% · edge: +45.3%
Model probabilities Aleksandar Vukic 34.8% · Mark Lajal 65.2% Why Mark Lajal is favoured Mark Lajal's Elo (1487) is +25 over Aleksandar Vukic (1462); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 42.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 34.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 65.2% vs market 44.8% (edge +45.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).