Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Nuno Borges
To win
+$6.60
Total payout
$26.60
Joint prob
76.9%
Combined odds
1.33
Fair odds
1.30
Edge
+2.3%
Expected value: +$0.46 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.46 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.9% · fair market: 73.2% · edge: +5.1%
Model probabilities Nuno Borges 76.9% · Facundo Diaz Acosta 23.1% Why Nuno Borges is favoured Nuno Borges's Elo (1635) is +175 over Facundo Diaz Acosta (1460); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 82.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 76.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 76.9% vs market 73.2% (edge +5.1%, suggested Kelly +7.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.