Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$14.80
Total payout
$34.80
Joint prob
72.7%
Combined odds
1.74
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+26.6%
Expected value: +$5.32 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 72.7% · fair market: 55.7% · edge: +30.5%
Model probabilities Jaume Munar 72.7% · Rinky Hijikata 27.3% Why Jaume Munar is favoured Jaume Munar's Elo (1620) is +94 over Rinky Hijikata (1526); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 72.7% vs market 55.7% (edge +30.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.