Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Gabriel Diallo
To win
+$17.00
Total payout
$37.00
Joint prob
64.1%
Combined odds
1.85
Fair odds
1.56
Edge
+18.7%
Expected value: +$3.73 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.73 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.1% · fair market: 52.4% · edge: +22.3%
Model probabilities Gabriel Diallo 64.1% · Kyrian Jacquet 35.9% Why Gabriel Diallo is favoured Gabriel Diallo's Elo (1554) is +50 over Kyrian Jacquet (1503); medium confidence. +EV vs market home: model 64.1% vs market 52.4% (edge +22.3%, suggested Kelly +22.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (45% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.