Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Christopher O'Connell
To win
+$84.40
Total payout
$104.40
Joint prob
35.2%
Combined odds
5.22
Fair odds
2.84
Edge
+83.9%
Expected value: +$16.79 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$16.79 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 35.2% · fair market: 18.6% · edge: +89.8%
Model probabilities Joao Fonseca 64.8% · Christopher O'Connell 35.2% Why Joao Fonseca is favoured Joao Fonseca's Elo (1720) is +200 over Christopher O'Connell (1519); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 84.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 64.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 35.2% vs market 18.6% (edge +89.8%, suggested Kelly +19.9% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.